ELECTIONS: Crunching the VOTE DATA

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Donald Trump winning in Marathon County shouldn’t surprise you, but the margin of victory probably will.

It’s not surprising that Marathon County overall went for Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election. After all, the county tipped for Mitt Romney in 2012 over President Obama. What might be surprising is the victory gap.

Romney defeated Barack Obama in Marathon County by 4,254 votes in 2012, a 52.5% to 46.3% margin. This year, Trump received 12,534 more votes than Clinton—a huge gap bump of 56% to 38%.

One non-factor locally was voter turnout. Marathon County saw an 87% turnout, identical to 2012. (The statewide 66% turnout was the lowest in decades.)

What did make the difference is that Clinton lost ground to Obama voters—in some cases a shocking amount—in almost every single ward in Marathon County, even reliably Dem-leaning areas.

Where she won a precinct, she didn’t win by as much. And the wards that went for Romney in 2012, mostly went for Trump by much higher margins.

RELATED: Campaign spending curiosities

Wausau’s Ward No. 1, on the southeast side, is a good example. Clinton defeated Trump in that neighborhood 518 to 383. But Obama got 564 votes there in 2012, and turnout was roughly the same. Only in wards 4 and 9 (east of Grand Avenue) did Clinton outperform Obama.

While Trump in 2016 outperformed Romney’s 2012 numbers in almost all wards, there are exceptions.

The biggest disparity shows up in ward no. 16, on the north side of Wausau near the village of Maine, where Romney got 74 more votes in 2012 than Trump did in 2016. In that ward, voter turnout was also down slightly.

Crunching the numbers precinct-by-precinct in the Wausau metro area, it would appear that a number of Obama voters flipped to Trump. Even taking into account the higher-than-usual third party and write-in votes, it’s about only way the math works out.

Obama won four of 13 wards in the village of Weston and four out of six wards in Rothschild. In 2016, all wards went to Trump, largely because Clinton failed to get anywhere near the votes Obama did. Some neighborhoods saw a 25% slide. Again, the turnout rates were very close to 2012, and even third-party and write-in votes don’t close the Obama-Clinton gap.

Schofield flipped from blue to red, too. In 2012, Obama defeated Romney in Schofield’s four wards 604-519. That flipped to 568-478 in favor of Trump this year.

Many solid Republican wards were even more solid this year. In Marathon City, Romney defeated Obama 496-346 in 2012. This year, Trump defeated Clinton 540-261.

RELATED: A City Pages exit poll

So what about those third party candidates? It’s difficult to judge. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson drew 2,330 votes county wide. The next highest was Jill Stein, with 641. There were also 662 write-in votes. Combined, that’s a big increase over previous years.

In most metro area wards, third party and write-in votes were more than triple what they were in 2012. In Weston wards 9-13, those votes totaled 162 —nearly 6% of all votes cast there. In 2012, only 36 votes there went to third party or write in candidates.

There are few wards in which a hypothetical scenario where all third party voters having instead voted for Clinton would have tipped the scales in her favor. Countywide, 4,025 votes went to third party or write in candidates. Even if Clinton had received all those votes, she still would have fallen far short of Obama’s countywide support in 2012.

RELATED: Young voters could dominate the election (but probably won’t)

Kevin Hermening, longtime and active member of the Marathon County Republican Party and owner of Hermening Financial Group, has crunched a lot of data already on this election. He notes that in the city of Wausau, Clinton beat Trump by only 49.1–47.9%, a margin nearly unheard of in the traditionally Dem-leaning city. Trump’s statewide support so affected down ticket races, that only one Democrat managed to win a challenged race in the entire state—unheard of in the 30 years he’s been involved with politics, Hermening says.

The Clinton campaign didn’t set up shop in Wisconsin until after winning the primary in Wisconsin, says Marathon County Democratic Party Chair Andy Benedetto. Bernie Sanders had a strong primary team locally and in Wisconsin, which lead to a huge win for him and a lot of groundswell. While Clinton’s campaign invested heavily in Wisconsin after the primary, sending a number of workers to the state, Benedetto says it wasn’t enough. “There was definitely an enthusiasm gap.”


Comparing the presidential votes

Elections: Wausau Wards

Elections: Wausau Wards

How did Republican Donald Trump compare to Romney in 2012?

How did Democrat Hillary Clinton compare to Obama in 2012?

Click each link for a larger, more detailed map view.

Precincts that flipped from Dem in 2012 (Obama) to GOP in 2016 (Trump)

Schofield (all wards)

Trump’16 / Romney’12    568 / 519

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    478 / 604

3rd Party ’16                    82

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1135 / 1139

Village of Rothschild Wards 1 & 2

Trump’16 / Romney’12    423 / 390

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    393 / 534

3rd Party ’16                    53

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         874 / 934

Village of Rothschild Wards 3 & 4

Trump’16 / Romney’12    522 / 538

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    465 / 560

3rd Party ’16                    69

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1065 / 1108

Village of Weston Wards 3 & 8

Trump’16 / Romney’12    701 / 676

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    597 / 744

3rd Party ’16                    73

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1381 / 1440

Village of Weston Wards 9-13

Trump’16 / Romney’12    1459 / 1325

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    1148 / 1340

3rd Party ’16                    162

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         2788 / 2701

In Mosinee and Kronenwetter, Trumped gained, Clinton fell hard

Kronenwetter Wards 1-5

Trump’16 / Romney’12    1122 / 1060

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    754 / 931

3rd Party ’16                    134

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         2017 / 2017

Kronenwetter Wards 6-10

Trump’16 / Romney’12    1258 / 1030

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    728 / 870

3rd Party ’16                    118

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         2114 / 1918

Mosinee Wards 1, 2, 6 & 7

Trump’16 / Romney’12    661 / 568

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    402 / 507

3rd Party ’16                    59

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1129 / 1089

Mosinee Wards 3-5

Trump’16 / Romney’12    683 / 579

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    403 / 529

3rd Party ’16                   54

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1146 / 1125

Wausau city neighborhoods where Trump gained, Clinton fell substantially

WARD 5 (Grand Ave, E. Thomas St. area)

Trump’16 / Romney’12    290 / 273

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    346 / 401

3rd Party ’16                    54

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         694 / 684

WARD 8 (near west side, around Second Ave.)

Trump’16 / Romney’12    186 / 174

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    244 / 340

3rd Party ’16                    41

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         474 / 528

WARD 13 (east side, north of Bridge St.)

Trump’16 / Romney’12    293 / 250

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    346 / 468

3rd Party ’16                    61

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         704 / 735

WARD 21 (west side, south of W. Thomas)

Trump’16 / Romney’12    310 / 273

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    310 / 454

3rd Party ’16                    50

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         678 / 744

Other Wausau metro area precincts

Town of Rib Mountain (all wards)

Trump’16 / Romney’12    2480 / 2557

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    1664 / 1845

3rd Party ’16                      243

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         4423 / 4450

VILLAGE OF ROTHSCHILD WARD 5 & 6

Trump’16 / Romney’12    537 / 533

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    425/ 461

3rd Party ’16                      61

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1028 / 996

VILLAGE OF WESTON Wards 1, 2, 4, 5

Trump’16 / Romney’12    1155 / 1008

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    759 / 885

3rd Party ’16                    119

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         2046 / 1913

VILLAGE OF WESTON Wards 6 – 7

Trump’16 / Romney’12    745 / 785

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    463 / 533

3rd Party ’16                     80

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1299 / 1338

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 1

Trump’16 / Romney’12    383 / 395

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    518 / 564

3rd Party ’16                    75

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         991 / 979

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 2

Trump’16 / Romney’12    382 / 416

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    494 / 539

3rd Party ’16                    73

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         954 / 967

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 3

Trump’16 / Romney’12    198 / 202

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    239 / 319

3rd Party ’16                    40

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         480 / 532

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 4

Trump’16 / Romney’12    122 / 127

Clinton’16 / Obama’12     85 / 84

3rd Party ’16                    15

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         223 / 215

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 5 (see above)

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 6

Trump’16 / Romney’12    290 /273

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    346 / 401

3rd Party ’16                    50

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         492 / 443

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 7

Trump’16 / Romney’12    259 / 264

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    312 / 399

3rd Party ’16                    43

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         619 / 670

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 8 (see above)

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 9

Trump’16 / Romney’12    116 / 120

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    129 / 106

3rd Party ’16                    34

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         283 / 230

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 10

Trump’16 / Romney’12    96 / 123

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    58 / 41

3rd Party ’16                     9

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         163 / 165

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 12

Trump’16 / Romney’12    330 / 322

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    487 / 554

3rd Party ’16                    70

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         894 / 893

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 13 (see above)

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 14

Trump’16 / Romney’12    303 / 324

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    364 / 470

3rd Party ’16                    43

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         723 / 806

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 15

Trump’16 / Romney’12    589 / 644

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    543 / 552

3rd Party ’16                    75

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1216 / 1209

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 16

Trump’16 / Romney’12    470 / 544

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    386 / 388

3rd Party ’16                    40

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         904 / 944

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 17

Trump’16 / Romney’12    370 / 393

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    399 / 441

3rd Party ’16                    47

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         820 / 841

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 18

Trump’16 / Romney’12    369 / 357

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    429 / 527

3rd Party ’16                     51

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         852 / 893

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 19

Trump’16 / Romney’12    344 / 335

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    357 / 428

3rd Party ’16                    55

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         756 / 779

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 20

Trump’16 / Romney’12    306 / 286

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    381 / 502

3rd Party ’16                    55

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         750 / 799

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 21 (see above)

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 22

Trump’16 / Romney’12    307 / 303

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    385 / 466

3rd Party ’16                     37

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         731 / 784

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 23

Trump’16 / Romney’12    343 / 342

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    405 / 555

3rd Party ’16                    58

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         814 / 915

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 24

Trump’16 / Romney’12    464 / 478

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    400 / 464

3rd Party ’16                    45

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         917 / 953

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 25

Trump’16 / Romney’12    497 / 534

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    426 / 461

3rd Party ’16                    66

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         1004 / 1010

CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 26

Trump’16 / Romney’12    414 / 430

Clinton’16 / Obama’12    340 / 384

3rd Party ’16                     80

Total ‘16/ Total ’12         839 / 826

Note: We did not include third party votes for 2012 because of insignificant numbers. Totals may not add exactly because the 2016 numbers are unofficial.