Donald Trump winning in Marathon County shouldn’t surprise you, but the margin of victory probably will.
It’s not surprising that Marathon County overall went for Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election. After all, the county tipped for Mitt Romney in 2012 over President Obama. What might be surprising is the victory gap.
Romney defeated Barack Obama in Marathon County by 4,254 votes in 2012, a 52.5% to 46.3% margin. This year, Trump received 12,534 more votes than Clinton—a huge gap bump of 56% to 38%.
One non-factor locally was voter turnout. Marathon County saw an 87% turnout, identical to 2012. (The statewide 66% turnout was the lowest in decades.)
What did make the difference is that Clinton lost ground to Obama voters—in some cases a shocking amount—in almost every single ward in Marathon County, even reliably Dem-leaning areas.
Where she won a precinct, she didn’t win by as much. And the wards that went for Romney in 2012, mostly went for Trump by much higher margins.
RELATED: Campaign spending curiosities
Wausau’s Ward No. 1, on the southeast side, is a good example. Clinton defeated Trump in that neighborhood 518 to 383. But Obama got 564 votes there in 2012, and turnout was roughly the same. Only in wards 4 and 9 (east of Grand Avenue) did Clinton outperform Obama.
While Trump in 2016 outperformed Romney’s 2012 numbers in almost all wards, there are exceptions.
The biggest disparity shows up in ward no. 16, on the north side of Wausau near the village of Maine, where Romney got 74 more votes in 2012 than Trump did in 2016. In that ward, voter turnout was also down slightly.
Crunching the numbers precinct-by-precinct in the Wausau metro area, it would appear that a number of Obama voters flipped to Trump. Even taking into account the higher-than-usual third party and write-in votes, it’s about only way the math works out.
Obama won four of 13 wards in the village of Weston and four out of six wards in Rothschild. In 2016, all wards went to Trump, largely because Clinton failed to get anywhere near the votes Obama did. Some neighborhoods saw a 25% slide. Again, the turnout rates were very close to 2012, and even third-party and write-in votes don’t close the Obama-Clinton gap.
Schofield flipped from blue to red, too. In 2012, Obama defeated Romney in Schofield’s four wards 604-519. That flipped to 568-478 in favor of Trump this year.
Many solid Republican wards were even more solid this year. In Marathon City, Romney defeated Obama 496-346 in 2012. This year, Trump defeated Clinton 540-261.
RELATED: A City Pages exit poll
So what about those third party candidates? It’s difficult to judge. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson drew 2,330 votes county wide. The next highest was Jill Stein, with 641. There were also 662 write-in votes. Combined, that’s a big increase over previous years.
In most metro area wards, third party and write-in votes were more than triple what they were in 2012. In Weston wards 9-13, those votes totaled 162 —nearly 6% of all votes cast there. In 2012, only 36 votes there went to third party or write in candidates.
There are few wards in which a hypothetical scenario where all third party voters having instead voted for Clinton would have tipped the scales in her favor. Countywide, 4,025 votes went to third party or write in candidates. Even if Clinton had received all those votes, she still would have fallen far short of Obama’s countywide support in 2012.
RELATED: Young voters could dominate the election (but probably won’t)
Kevin Hermening, longtime and active member of the Marathon County Republican Party and owner of Hermening Financial Group, has crunched a lot of data already on this election. He notes that in the city of Wausau, Clinton beat Trump by only 49.1–47.9%, a margin nearly unheard of in the traditionally Dem-leaning city. Trump’s statewide support so affected down ticket races, that only one Democrat managed to win a challenged race in the entire state—unheard of in the 30 years he’s been involved with politics, Hermening says.
The Clinton campaign didn’t set up shop in Wisconsin until after winning the primary in Wisconsin, says Marathon County Democratic Party Chair Andy Benedetto. Bernie Sanders had a strong primary team locally and in Wisconsin, which lead to a huge win for him and a lot of groundswell. While Clinton’s campaign invested heavily in Wisconsin after the primary, sending a number of workers to the state, Benedetto says it wasn’t enough. “There was definitely an enthusiasm gap.”
Comparing the presidential votes
Elections: Wausau Wards
How did Republican Donald Trump compare to Romney in 2012?
How did Democrat Hillary Clinton compare to Obama in 2012?
Click each link for a larger, more detailed map view.
Precincts that flipped from Dem in 2012 (Obama) to GOP in 2016 (Trump)
Schofield (all wards)
Trump’16 / Romney’12 568 / 519
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 478 / 604
3rd Party ’16 82
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1135 / 1139
Village of Rothschild Wards 1 & 2
Trump’16 / Romney’12 423 / 390
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 393 / 534
3rd Party ’16 53
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 874 / 934
Village of Rothschild Wards 3 & 4
Trump’16 / Romney’12 522 / 538
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 465 / 560
3rd Party ’16 69
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1065 / 1108
Village of Weston Wards 3 & 8
Trump’16 / Romney’12 701 / 676
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 597 / 744
3rd Party ’16 73
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1381 / 1440
Village of Weston Wards 9-13
Trump’16 / Romney’12 1459 / 1325
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 1148 / 1340
3rd Party ’16 162
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 2788 / 2701
In Mosinee and Kronenwetter, Trumped gained, Clinton fell hard
Kronenwetter Wards 1-5
Trump’16 / Romney’12 1122 / 1060
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 754 / 931
3rd Party ’16 134
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 2017 / 2017
Kronenwetter Wards 6-10
Trump’16 / Romney’12 1258 / 1030
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 728 / 870
3rd Party ’16 118
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 2114 / 1918
Mosinee Wards 1, 2, 6 & 7
Trump’16 / Romney’12 661 / 568
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 402 / 507
3rd Party ’16 59
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1129 / 1089
Mosinee Wards 3-5
Trump’16 / Romney’12 683 / 579
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 403 / 529
3rd Party ’16 54
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1146 / 1125
Wausau city neighborhoods where Trump gained, Clinton fell substantially
WARD 5 (Grand Ave, E. Thomas St. area)
Trump’16 / Romney’12 290 / 273
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 346 / 401
3rd Party ’16 54
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 694 / 684
WARD 8 (near west side, around Second Ave.)
Trump’16 / Romney’12 186 / 174
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 244 / 340
3rd Party ’16 41
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 474 / 528
WARD 13 (east side, north of Bridge St.)
Trump’16 / Romney’12 293 / 250
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 346 / 468
3rd Party ’16 61
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 704 / 735
WARD 21 (west side, south of W. Thomas)
Trump’16 / Romney’12 310 / 273
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 310 / 454
3rd Party ’16 50
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 678 / 744
Other Wausau metro area precincts
Town of Rib Mountain (all wards)
Trump’16 / Romney’12 2480 / 2557
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 1664 / 1845
3rd Party ’16 243
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 4423 / 4450
VILLAGE OF ROTHSCHILD WARD 5 & 6
Trump’16 / Romney’12 537 / 533
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 425/ 461
3rd Party ’16 61
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1028 / 996
VILLAGE OF WESTON Wards 1, 2, 4, 5
Trump’16 / Romney’12 1155 / 1008
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 759 / 885
3rd Party ’16 119
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 2046 / 1913
VILLAGE OF WESTON Wards 6 – 7
Trump’16 / Romney’12 745 / 785
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 463 / 533
3rd Party ’16 80
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1299 / 1338
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 1
Trump’16 / Romney’12 383 / 395
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 518 / 564
3rd Party ’16 75
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 991 / 979
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 2
Trump’16 / Romney’12 382 / 416
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 494 / 539
3rd Party ’16 73
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 954 / 967
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 3
Trump’16 / Romney’12 198 / 202
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 239 / 319
3rd Party ’16 40
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 480 / 532
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 4
Trump’16 / Romney’12 122 / 127
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 85 / 84
3rd Party ’16 15
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 223 / 215
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 5 (see above)
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 6
Trump’16 / Romney’12 290 /273
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 346 / 401
3rd Party ’16 50
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 492 / 443
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 7
Trump’16 / Romney’12 259 / 264
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 312 / 399
3rd Party ’16 43
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 619 / 670
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 8 (see above)
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 9
Trump’16 / Romney’12 116 / 120
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 129 / 106
3rd Party ’16 34
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 283 / 230
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 10
Trump’16 / Romney’12 96 / 123
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 58 / 41
3rd Party ’16 9
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 163 / 165
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 12
Trump’16 / Romney’12 330 / 322
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 487 / 554
3rd Party ’16 70
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 894 / 893
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 13 (see above)
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 14
Trump’16 / Romney’12 303 / 324
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 364 / 470
3rd Party ’16 43
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 723 / 806
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 15
Trump’16 / Romney’12 589 / 644
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 543 / 552
3rd Party ’16 75
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1216 / 1209
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 16
Trump’16 / Romney’12 470 / 544
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 386 / 388
3rd Party ’16 40
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 904 / 944
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 17
Trump’16 / Romney’12 370 / 393
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 399 / 441
3rd Party ’16 47
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 820 / 841
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 18
Trump’16 / Romney’12 369 / 357
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 429 / 527
3rd Party ’16 51
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 852 / 893
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 19
Trump’16 / Romney’12 344 / 335
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 357 / 428
3rd Party ’16 55
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 756 / 779
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 20
Trump’16 / Romney’12 306 / 286
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 381 / 502
3rd Party ’16 55
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 750 / 799
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 21 (see above)
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 22
Trump’16 / Romney’12 307 / 303
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 385 / 466
3rd Party ’16 37
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 731 / 784
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 23
Trump’16 / Romney’12 343 / 342
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 405 / 555
3rd Party ’16 58
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 814 / 915
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 24
Trump’16 / Romney’12 464 / 478
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 400 / 464
3rd Party ’16 45
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 917 / 953
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 25
Trump’16 / Romney’12 497 / 534
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 426 / 461
3rd Party ’16 66
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 1004 / 1010
CITY OF WAUSAU Ward 26
Trump’16 / Romney’12 414 / 430
Clinton’16 / Obama’12 340 / 384
3rd Party ’16 80
Total ‘16/ Total ’12 839 / 826
Note: We did not include third party votes for 2012 because of insignificant numbers. Totals may not add exactly because the 2016 numbers are unofficial.
